Archived: the classic site (v1), frozen 29 Oct 2026. Kept for reference only: its data stopped updating and some functions may not work. Go to the current site →
Numbered situation reports, newest first. Search, or filter by type, place and month.
How these are made. SITREPs are LLM-generated and automated: produced by an AI model from the pipeline's open-source data and published. They are leads, not findings. Analyses are different: written by a human and signed by their author.
RWI-SITREP-016Intra-day1 lead
Evening — 27–28 October 2026 (Djibouti: where the heat actually is)
Reporter leads · unexplained so far
Djibouti: a spot just north of the Chabelley runway (US drone base) burned on 4 May, 22 Jun, 6 Jul and 26 Oct; nothing else burns there.
Window 27 Oct 2026 17:00 MDT (23:00 UTC) → 28 Oct 2026 00:30 MDT (06:30 UTC)
No fire at the Chinese base in Djibouti: six months of satellite fire data show none at the PLA base or Doraleh port. The alerts were named after the whole Djibouti box; 150 of 172 detections are the Douda waste dump. One recurring spot beside the US drone runway at Chabelley is a lead. Otherwise a quiet evening: routine flares, first night of city MILAIR and the Southern California harbour watch.
Ad hoc — four conflict zones 21–27 Oct (first all-satellite FIRMS pull) and daytime 27 Oct
Reporter leads · unexplained so far
Rzeszów: Polish Air Force Gulfstream 0001 (PLF105) landed 27 Oct 10:52–11:10 UTC with no announced visit.
Window 20 Oct 2026 18:00 MDT (00:00 UTC, 21 Oct) → 27 Oct 2026 17:00 MDT (23:00 UTC)
First week-long pull on the new FIRMS key: southern Lebanon was the busiest zone (31 detections, none on 26–27 Oct despite reported strikes); western Libya is industrial bar four small night fires; five front-line fires near Zaporizhzhia; two at besieged El Obeid. The key returned every detection the watch had, plus 25 more (BENCH-009). A Polish government jet landed at Rzeszów with no announced visit.
Special — Israel election day, 27 October 2026 (last 24 h)
Reporter leads · unexplained so far
Central Arava: a steady ~8 MW daytime fire on farmland at 30.678N 35.254E, 27 Oct 09:52–10:47 UTC, seen by three satellites as storms built; not explained by reporting.
Window 26 Oct 2026 14:15 MDT (20:15 UTC) → 27 Oct 2026 14:15 MDT (20:15 UTC)
Election day passed without a visible security event in the open data: four heat sources across Israel, Gaza, the West Bank and southern Lebanon in 24 hours, none in Gaza, the West Bank or the Lebanon strip, where strikes were nonetheless reported on 26 Oct. Election-eve flights show US tankers at Ben Gurion and an Israeli Heron drone circling central Israel. One unexplained fire in the central Arava as storms moved in.
Overnight — 27 October 2026 (Wainwright flight archive; tracks opened)
Reporter leads · unexplained so far
CFB Wainwright: no RCAF search-and-rescue aircraft in the open record on 17–18 Oct, although SAR techs reportedly parachuted in.
CFB Wainwright: Top Aces Alpha Jets made repeated low passes over the base 20–26 Oct; one directly overhead on 21 Oct.
Window 26 Oct 2026 20:45 MDT (02:45 UTC, 27 Oct) → 27 Oct 2026 01:30 MDT (07:30 UTC)
Quiet night. The CFB Wainwright archive scan shows the casualty airlift: CanWest Air, Saskatchewan Air Ambulance and STARS aircraft flew to the base from 17:28 MDT on 17 Oct through the next afternoon, matching Alberta's six fixed-wing and two helicopters. No RCAF SAR aircraft is visible; Top Aces Alpha Jets were back over the base from 20 Oct. Eight tracks opened overnight; the Al-Watiya running loops are confirmed on the activity heatmap.
Evening — 26–27 October 2026 (with DECODEDELTA1 year-to-date scan)
Reporter leads · unexplained so far
Al-Watiya: the 2–3 Sep Turkish A400Ms are the only aircraft to come down there in 287 days of open ADS-B this year; still unreported.
USAF C-37A SPAR75 at Chièvres beside SHAPE, 26 Oct 13:37 UTC; no announced visit.
West Zawiya coast and south-of-Sabratha night fires; still unexplained.
Window 26 Oct 2026 15:50 MDT (21:50 UTC) → 26 Oct 2026 20:45 MDT (02:45 UTC, 27 Oct)
Quiet evening: no heat at any conflict site, routine industrial flaring only; a USAF E-3 AWACS over CFB Gagetown. DECODEDELTA1: the flight scan back to 1 January finds no other aircraft coming down at Al-Watiya all year, and the 31 Aug – 6 Sep week is the year's peak of Turkish A400M traffic to western Libya.
Midday — 26 October 2026 (with DECODEDELTA1 progress)
Reporter leads · unexplained so far
West Zawiya coast night fires, 11 Aug – 11 Sep: before/after imagery shows no change; still unexplained (from SITREP 010).
South of Sabratha night fires, 27 Aug: only change is a darker patch at one compound; still unexplained (from SITREP 010).
Window 26 Oct 2026 04:40 MDT (10:40 UTC) → 26 Oct 2026 15:50 MDT (21:50 UTC)
The UAE Presidential Flight landed in Ottawa at 15:37 EDT for the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince's visit; a USAF VIP jet (SPAR75) landed at Chièvres beside SHAPE, unannounced. New heat on the Zaporizhzhia front and next to Chabelley airfield in Djibouti (likely its burn pit). DECODEDELTA1: both Zawiya blackouts now confirmed; a daily landing watch on western Libyan airfields goes live tomorrow; the flight scan back to 1 January is running.
Two night detections west of Yevpatoria, Crimea — 24 Oct 23:46 and 25 Oct 00:05 UTC; still unreported (from SITREPs 006 and 008).
Khiam fire, southern Lebanon — 25 Oct 09:45–11:25 UTC; artillery on the Khiam plain reported that day without times; partly explained.
Window 25 Oct 2026 20:05 MDT (02:05 UTC, 26 Oct) → 26 Oct 2026 04:40 MDT (10:40 UTC)
Quiet night. The two new heat detections — at Bakhchysarai in Crimea and 3 km south of SHAPE in Belgium — are cement kilns. Sevastopol's rolling outages are rationing after the 23–24 Oct Taman substation strike. Night lights are unreliable this week: the full moon (26 Oct) set off a false Crimea SURGE alert; the pipeline now suppresses those.
Sustained fire near Khiam, southern Lebanon — 25 Oct 09:45–11:25 UTC, up to 10.5 MW, open slope outside the town; no dated report.
Two night detections west of Yevpatoria, Crimea — 24 Oct 23:46 and 25 Oct 00:05 UTC; still unreported (from SITREP 006).
What was hit before Sevastopol's 25 Oct rolling outages — target and time not stated; our 24 Oct night lights were near normal.
Window 25 Oct 2026 05:45 MDT (11:45 UTC) → 25 Oct 2026 20:05 MDT (02:05 UTC, 26 Oct)
Quiet afternoon and evening: no thermal detections in any conflict zone on the 25 Oct night passes, only routine industrial heat. Sevastopol announced rolling power cuts after a Ukrainian attack; our last usable night (24 Oct) still looks near normal, so tonight is the test. A fire near Khiam in southern Lebanon burned at least 1 h 40 min on 25 Oct morning (up to 10.5 MW), unmatched in reporting. No notable imagery change.
Window 24 Oct 2026 05:45 MDT (11:45 UTC) → 25 Oct 2026 05:45 MDT (11:45 UTC)
Quiet 24 h: two small unreported night detections west of Yevpatoria, single detections in southern Lebanon and on the Zaporizhzhia front, Novorossiysk's usual waterfront hotspot, industrial heat at normal levels; Sevastopol 23 Oct blackout remains the latest night-lights flag.
Window 18 Oct 2026 00:51 MDT (06:51 UTC) → 25 Oct 2026 00:51 MDT (06:51 UTC)
Quiet week across 101 Canadian sites (domestic, North Warning System, abroad) apart from CFB Wainwright; overseas heat sources are industrial and off-site; 110 of 112 new boxes verified against imagery.
Window 21 Oct 2026 20:26 MDT (02:26 UTC, 22 Oct) → 24 Oct 2026 20:26 MDT (02:26 UTC, 25 Oct)
Crimea-wide blackout overnight 23–24 Oct linked to a strike on the Taman 500 kV substation; one night thermal detection on the Taman Peninsula 1h45 after the outage; nothing visible inside Crimea; Taman and Crimea boxes added.
Window 17 Oct 2026 06:50 MDT (12:50 UTC) → 24 Oct 2026 06:50 MDT (12:50 UTC)
CFB Wainwright thermal detection ~70 min before the stated ignition time; Southern Lebanon most active site; Gaza-box detections mostly on the Israeli side of the perimeter; Engels-2 flag withdrawn.
