Signals

Night lights (VIIRS Day/Night Band) and dark-ship candidates. Both are leads to check, not findings.

Night lights

Last run: 2026-10-28 19:47 UTC

Ratio = night's net radiance (box mean above its own 20th-percentile background) ÷ median of the previous 30 usable nights of the same product (baseline from ≥ 50% cloud-free nights). Lit-area ratio = bright pixels (net > 5) per cloud-free pixel vs baseline. BLACKOUT: ratio < 0.5 or lit-area < 0.3; on 30–50% cloud-free nights both must drop. SURGE: ratio > 2 on clear nights only, and not from VNP46A1 when the moon is more than 60% lit (A1 is not moonlight-corrected). VNP46A2 is moon/BRDF-corrected but lags ~7 days; VNP46A1 covers the latest nights.

Site	Night	Ratio	Lit-area ratio	Net (nW/cm²/sr)	Baseline	Cloud-free	Flag
Bandar Abbas Naval Base & Shahid Rajaee port	2026-10-20	0.35	0.42	6.21	17.87	57%	BLACKOUT (VNP46A1)
Crimea — peninsula-wide (coarse)	2026-10-19	0.40	0.18	0.14	0.36	44%	BLACKOUT (VNP46A1, partial cloud)
Hmeimim Air Base	2026-10-14	0.43	0.14	0.78	1.82	100%	BLACKOUT (VNP46A2)
Hmeimim Air Base	2026-10-15	0.37	0.00	0.65	1.73	53%	BLACKOUT (VNP46A2)
Hmeimim Air Base	2026-10-18	0.15	—	0.23	1.57	61%	BLACKOUT (VNP46A1)
Novorossiysk Naval Base (Black Sea Fleet)	2026-10-15	0.30	0.74	6.91	22.89	51%	BLACKOUT (VNP46A2)
Sevastopol Naval Base (Black Sea Fleet)	2026-10-23	0.51	0.09	1.23	2.41	36%	BLACKOUT (VNP46A1, partial cloud)
Sudan — North Kordofan around El Obeid	2026-10-20	0.46	—	0.14	0.30	53%	BLACKOUT (VNP46A1)

Cloud, moonlight, snow and aurora all affect the Day/Night Band. A flag means: look closer.

Dark ships

Radar ship ≥ 40 m, AIS logger hearing the site within ±30 min, no AIS position within 500 m. NO-COVERAGE means the logger wasn't listening — not evidence of anything.

Site	Radar ships	No coverage	Small
barksdale	3	3	0
cfb-esquimalt	15	6	9
cfb-halifax	43	30	13
cfb-trenton	2	2	0
ns-norfolk	32	17	15

DARK in the last 14 days

Site	Pass (UTC)	#	Lat	Lon	Length m	AIS msgs heard
—						none yet