Reports
SITREPs, hindcasts and briefs, newest first. Daily area Watches are on Watches.
- RWI-SITREP-019Daily — 29–30 October 2026A quieter day: no Gagetown detection after 18:21 on 29 Oct, and the only clear Sentinel-2 pass misses the burn at a tile edge. A daytime heat pair at LNG Canada ten times its usual. The big change scores at the Arctic radar sites are fresh snow and freeze-up, not activity. The first daily pickup since the disk failure ran cleanly.
- RWI-SITREP-018Daytime — 29 October 2026 (CFB Gagetown: day 2, cause confirmed)CFB Gagetown: the base says artillery fire into the Lawfield Impact Area started the fire; about 25 ha burned and 12 ha were still burning on 29 Oct. Satellites saw it flare up again by day (GOES-19 ~40–46 MW, 13 VIIRS pixels), on the south side of day 1's patch. SITREP 017's lead L1 is confirmed. A Tunisian military C-130J landed at St. John's. The daily pickup failed (out of disk).
- RWI-SITREP-01728–29 October 2026 (the CFB Gagetown fire)Satellites saw a fire at CFB Gagetown for about three hours on 28 Oct: GOES-19 detected heat from 12:46 to 15:41 ADT, peaking at 112 MW, and VIIRS put 35 fire pixels over 1.3 × 2.7 km inside one open clearing in the east of the training area; low heat remained the next morning. DND confirms the fire but not its size or cause. No obvious scar at the Chabelley spot in Djibouti on a clear 28 Oct pass, and a new spot by the road nearby; a night fire on the Zawiya coast. The new cloud mask went live.
- RWI-BRIEF-005Militia activity around Al-Watiya before the 14 Dec 2015 landingNo reported or visible fighting within ~30 km of Al-Watiya in December 2015, including 7–13 Dec. Nearest violence: a criminal kidnapping in Surman (~60 km) on 2 Dec. All 87 VIIRS detections within 90 km are industrial flares. Local fronts had cooled after the 12 Nov Warshefana–Zawiya ceasefire. Key UN and Libya Herald sources not yet reached.
- RWI-BRIEF-004The C-146A at Al-Watiya, 14 Dec 2015: movements and other air trafficOne aircraft on the record: USAF C-146A 11-3097 (N307EF), 524th SOS. Landed in the dark, on the ground at least 2.5 h, tracked north as MAGMA30 to Pantelleria (483 km), then flew back toward Libya the same day to an unreported destination. No inbound track; no other aircraft reported or visible on the base; no airstrikes anywhere in western Libya Oct 2015–Jan 2016.
- RWI-HC-003-P2-DECODEDELTA1Hindcast part 2 — DECODEDELTA1, Al-Watiya, the whole of December 2015December 2015 at Al-Watiya, the month of the 14 Dec US special forces landing: no satellite passed on the 14th, and nothing in the open record marks it. Radar spanning the landing (12 → 24 Dec) is as quiet as the control pair before it; the base was dark at night all month; no fire within 30 km. The reported 06:00 landing was two hours before sunrise (08:05 local). The Libyan Air Force's three photos (C-146A 13097) were all taken in daylight, at least 2.5 h after landing; the aircraft faced west to south-west (revision 2). Clear Sentinel-2 on 25 Nov and 25 Dec gives a clean before/after at 10 m. Supersedes HC-003's "cannot image" line.
- RWI-BRIEF-003The Wainwright paratroopers: the full fileEverything on the SAR parachute jump into Wainwright: eleven points that don't add up (two tails, two jump times, two headcounts, four drop zones, six hours, closer options unused, busy airspace, a release that omits the jump), the jump Hercules 130339, the RCAF that night, the rescue units, and every received position of the aircraft.
- RWI-HC-004Hindcast — The RCAF on the night of the Wainwright fire (17–18 Oct 2026)Almost nothing else in the RCAF was flying on the night of the Wainwright fire. Only the national SAR squadrons can parachute medics, and the nearest were Winnipeg and Comox, each about 1,000 km away; Cold Lake lost its SAR techs in 2018. A Comox Kingfisher was airborne when the fire hit. The drop zone sat under the air-ambulance traffic into Wainwright.
- RWI-BRIEF-002The Wainwright SAR parachute drop, night of 17–18 October 2026The open flight archive identifies CC-130H 130339 of 435 Squadron, 17 Wing Winnipeg, as the probable jump aircraft: the only CC-130H transmitting on 17–18 Oct, airborne from Winnipeg 19:49 MDT to 05:01 MDT. DND has confirmed 11 SAR techs jumped near the Wainwright hospital but has named no aircraft, time or tasking. No other military aircraft was received near Wainwright that night.
- RWI-SITREP-016Evening — 27–28 October 2026 (Djibouti: where the heat actually is)No fire at the Chinese base in Djibouti: six months of satellite fire data show none at the PLA base or Doraleh port. The alerts were named after the whole Djibouti box; 150 of 172 detections are the Douda waste dump. One recurring spot beside the US drone runway at Chabelley is a lead. Otherwise a quiet evening: routine flares, first night of city MILAIR and the Southern California harbour watch.
- RWI-SITREP-015Ad hoc — four conflict zones 21–27 Oct (first all-satellite FIRMS pull) and daytime 27 OctFirst week-long pull on the new FIRMS key: southern Lebanon was the busiest zone (31 detections, none on 26–27 Oct despite reported strikes); western Libya is industrial bar four small night fires; five front-line fires near Zaporizhzhia; two at besieged El Obeid. The key returned every detection the watch had, plus 25 more (BENCH-009). A Polish government jet landed at Rzeszów with no announced visit.
- RWI-SITREP-014Special — Israel election day, 27 October 2026 (last 24 h)Election day passed without a visible security event in the open data: four heat sources across Israel, Gaza, the West Bank and southern Lebanon in 24 hours, none in Gaza, the West Bank or the Lebanon strip, where strikes were nonetheless reported on 26 Oct. Election-eve flights show US tankers at Ben Gurion and an Israeli Heron drone circling central Israel. One unexplained fire in the central Arava as storms moved in.
- RWI-SITREP-013Overnight — 27 October 2026 (Wainwright flight archive; tracks opened)Quiet night. The CFB Wainwright archive scan shows the casualty airlift: CanWest Air, Saskatchewan Air Ambulance and STARS aircraft flew to the base from 17:28 MDT on 17 Oct through the next afternoon, matching Alberta's six fixed-wing and two helicopters. No RCAF SAR aircraft is visible; Top Aces Alpha Jets were back over the base from 20 Oct. Eight tracks opened overnight; the Al-Watiya running loops are confirmed on the activity heatmap.
- RWI-BRIEF-001RCAF aircraft in the evening logs — a CC-295 Kingfisher at Winnipeg, Harvard IIs at Moose JawA CC-295 Kingfisher spent the evening on the 17 Wing ramp at Winnipeg, changed callsign (ATLS513 to REBL513) while parked, and left east-north-east at 00:24 UTC. National Defence lists Winnipeg as a Kingfisher base but gives a status only for Comox, so this is a lead. The Harvard IIs at Moose Jaw were routine pilot training; the Southport aircraft are contractor-registered, not RCAF.
- RWI-SITREP-012Evening — 26–27 October 2026 (with DECODEDELTA1 year-to-date scan)Quiet evening: no heat at any conflict site, routine industrial flaring only; a USAF E-3 AWACS over CFB Gagetown. DECODEDELTA1: the flight scan back to 1 January finds no other aircraft coming down at Al-Watiya all year, and the 31 Aug – 6 Sep week is the year's peak of Turkish A400M traffic to western Libya.
- RWI-SITREP-011Midday — 26 October 2026 (with DECODEDELTA1 progress)The UAE Presidential Flight landed in Ottawa at 15:37 EDT for the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince's visit; a USAF VIP jet (SPAR75) landed at Chièvres beside SHAPE, unannounced. New heat on the Zaporizhzhia front and next to Chabelley airfield in Djibouti (likely its burn pit). DECODEDELTA1: both Zawiya blackouts now confirmed; a daily landing watch on western Libyan airfields goes live tomorrow; the flight scan back to 1 January is running.
- RWI-HC-003-DECODEDELTA1Hindcast — DECODEDELTA1, Al-Watiya air base and western LibyaAl-Watiya is quiet: no heat, dark at night, no visible change in 2026. The only aircraft to come down there in 90 days of open ADS-B were two Turkish A400Ms on 2 and 3 Sep, unreported, inside a one-week Turkish airlift surge into western Libya. The southern runway was resurfaced in late 2020, after Turkey arrived. The fighting is in Zawiya: the 10–11 Aug refinery fire shows in VIIRS and imagery, and the city went dark on 16–17 Aug and again on 31 Aug, both in western-Libya grid collapses (revision 1). Starting point: the December 2015 US special forces landing at the base.
- RWI-SITREP-009Intra-day — 26 October 2026Quiet night. The two new heat detections — at Bakhchysarai in Crimea and 3 km south of SHAPE in Belgium — are cement kilns. Sevastopol's rolling outages are rationing after the 23–24 Oct Taman substation strike. Night lights are unreliable this week: the full moon (26 Oct) set off a false Crimea SURGE alert; the pipeline now suppresses those.
- RWI-HC-002-P3Hindcast — CFS Alert, Part 3 (1 Jul – 24 Oct 2026)Alert is unheard all year and fall BOXTOP is invisible in open data, but Greenland got busier: Keflavík peaked at 36 military aircraft-days in the week of 7 Sep, France's PEGASE 26 tankers crossed to Alaska on 8 Sep, an RCAF CC-177 landed at Nuuk on 12 Sep, and an RAF Shadow R1 surveillance aircraft visited Nuuk on 20–21 Oct. Five reporter leads.
- RWI-SITREP-008Intra-day — 25–26 October 2026Quiet afternoon and evening: no thermal detections in any conflict zone on the 25 Oct night passes, only routine industrial heat. Sevastopol announced rolling power cuts after a Ukrainian attack; our last usable night (24 Oct) still looks near normal, so tonight is the test. A fire near Khiam in southern Lebanon burned at least 1 h 40 min on 25 Oct morning (up to 10.5 MW), unmatched in reporting. No notable imagery change.
- RWI-HC-002-P2Hindcast — CFS Alert, Part 2 (25 Mar – 30 Jun 2026)Spring BOXTOP 26-1 flew in April with an RAF C-17 alongside the RCAF for the first time; open ADS-B catches RAF C-17s staging through Keflavík, with ZZ176 northwest-bound towards Pituffik on 10 Apr. Alert itself is still unheard, and clear passes show no aircraft on the ground. US government jets at Nuuk match envoy Landry's 17–20 May visit; Danish activity at Nuuk peaks 13 May – 4 Jun; the RCAF's effort goes west to RED FLAG-Alaska, not to Greenland.
- RWI-HC-002-P1Hindcast — CFS Alert, Part 1 (1 Jan – 24 Mar 2026)Open sources are blind at Alert itself; the 12–13 Jan RCAF CC-130J flight is not in the open ADS-B archive. Danish military airlift into Nuuk is visible from 12–13 Jan, days before the reported start of Arctic Endurance; no RCAF aircraft seen landing in Greenland; RCAF northern activity in March matches Op NANOOK-NUNALIVUT.
- RWI-SITREP-006Daily — 25 October 2026Quiet 24 h: two small unreported night detections west of Yevpatoria, single detections in southern Lebanon and on the Zaporizhzhia front, Novorossiysk's usual waterfront hotspot, industrial heat at normal levels; Sevastopol 23 Oct blackout remains the latest night-lights flag.
- RWI-HC-001Hindcast — CFB Wainwright fire (14–25 Oct 2026)Rev. 1: fire began in Permanent Danger Area 2 downrange of Range 11 (VIIRS pixels 2.1–4.4 km ENE, supporting Prime Rogue's origin model); low-intensity from midday, ~1,200 MW run at 15:30 after the 15:16 gust, reaching the Range 2 area ~15:19–15:26; ~10.7 km² burned, ~0.9 km² off-base; a separate unreported fire in the same danger area on 14 Oct.
- RWI-SITREP-004Canadian footprint — 7 daysQuiet week across 101 Canadian sites (domestic, North Warning System, abroad) apart from CFB Wainwright; overseas heat sources are industrial and off-site; 110 of 112 new boxes verified against imagery.
- RWI-SITREP-003Ad hoc — Crimea / TamanCrimea-wide blackout overnight 23–24 Oct linked to a strike on the Taman 500 kV substation; one night thermal detection on the Taman Peninsula 1h45 after the outage; nothing visible inside Crimea; Taman and Crimea boxes added.
- RWI-SITREP-002Follow-onRenewed thermal activity in Southern Lebanon (24 Oct 11:25–11:47 UTC), not yet in the news; one hotspot in farmland ~1 km outside Camp Bondsteel.
- RWI-SITREP-001Weekly situation report (7 d / 72 h / 24 h)CFB Wainwright thermal detection ~70 min before the stated ignition time; Southern Lebanon most active site; Gaza-box detections mostly on the Israeli side of the perimeter; Engels-2 flag withdrawn.