Hindcast — CFS Alert, Part 3 (1 Jul – 24 Oct 2026)

Reporter leads unexplained so far

1. RWI-HC-002-P3-L1Where were the US C-17s going?

   Where / whenUSAF C-17s 00-0174 (28 Jul), 09-9209 (1 Aug) and 99-0168 (4 Sep), heading ~330° from north-east Iceland at 34,000 ft and last heard at 68.4–69.3°N 20.5°W (the first two at the identical point, which is probably the edge of receiver coverage). A Luftwaffe A400M (54+28, 4 Aug) was heard briefly at 68.9–69.3°N heading ~013° — towards Station Nord or Svalbard, not the same line

   Whyfrom where they were lost, Pituffik bears ~320°, Alert ~342°, and East Greenland's Constable Pynt and Mestersvig 334–345°. Defense One (20 Oct) reports Mestersvig has mainly hosted special operations forces and is to become a US base. No such flights have been reported.

   Would settle itUSAF or Danish Joint Arctic Command confirmation of the destinations; the nearest Sentinel passes of Mestersvig and Constable Pynt (5–7 Sep, Plates D2–D3) show nothing at 10 m.

2. RWI-HC-002-P3-L2An RAF Shadow R1 surveillance aircraft at Nuuk

   Where / whenZZ416 left Keflavík at 10:19 UTC on 20 Oct and departed Nuuk southbound at 14:58 (its arrival was not heard). It then went unheard for about 24 hours somewhere south of Nuuk, came back from the south to land at Nuuk at about 15:36 on 21 Oct, left at about 17:00 and landed at Keflavík about 20:05. Sister aircraft ZZ418 was at Keflavík 12–13 Oct

   Whythe Shadow R1 is the RAF's intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft (due for withdrawal under the 2026 Defence Investment Plan). We found no report of RAF ISR flights from or over Greenland.

   Would settle itMoD or Danish confirmation of the tasking and where it spent 20–21 Oct; whether it is linked to Arctic Sentry. The Folketing's Greenland Committee was in Nuuk on 20–23 Oct (Altinget calendar) — no stated link, but worth a check.

3. RWI-HC-002-P3-L3First RCAF aircraft on the ground in Greenland in this year's archive

   Where / whenCC-177 177702: left Keflavík 13:41 UTC on 12 Sep, final approach at Nuuk 15:48, on the ground until about 16:35, then departed westbound

   Whyit is the only RCAF aircraft logged on the ground at any Greenland airfield all year. It landed the day before NORAD's ARCTIC VANGUARD 26 (13–26 Sep, hosted from Goose Bay, operating over Labrador and Greenland), but DND's account lists CF-18s, a CC-130H and helicopters, not a CC-177.

   Would settle itwhat 177702 carried to Nuuk (consulate, ARCTIC VANGUARD, or BOXTOP II support).

4. RWI-HC-002-P3-L4Danish military surge at Nuuk, 27 Sep – 3 Oct

   Where / whenRoyal Danish Air Force C-130J B-536, Challenger C-168 and Navy helicopter N-977 at or near Nuuk on seven straight days

   Why11 Danish aircraft-days at Nuuk in the week to 4 Oct — the most of the year (late May: 10). Danish Defence says Arctic Endurance runs all year, but we found no report of this week's activity.

   Would settle itDanish Joint Arctic Command or Greenlandic media for an exercise, visit or incident that week.

5. RWI-HC-002-P3-L5Unreported government jets at Nuuk

   Where / whenFrench government Falcon 7X F-RAFB (departed Nuuk 1 Jul), US Navy Citation 166374 (at Nuuk 15:08–16:07, 10 Jul), USAF C-37A 02-01863 (departed Nuuk 21:00, 31 Jul), Dutch A330 MRTT T-061 (overnight at Nuuk, 3–4 Aug)

   Whygovernment transports on the ground at Nuuk with no matching public visit we could find.

   Would settle itwho flew in — official calendars of the French, US, Qatari and Dutch governments for those dates.